The EPA estimates that around 28% of American greenhouse gas emissions come from transportation - primarily from light duty cars and trucks, and followed by heavy trucks and aircraft. This is the top source of carbon emissions in the United States, so the case for addressing it is pretty clear.
But there is good news! We are nearing a tipping point when it comes to electric cars. This isn’t a pipe dream like nuclear fusion, or an aspirational quest like putting astronauts on Mars. It’s here. No one is talking about “if” anymore. Instead, the federal government, local governments, automakers, investors, and oil companies are all talking about when and how. Here are some recent examples:
GM plans to eliminate gasoline and diesel light duty cars and SUVs by 2035 (January 28, 2021)
Biden wants an all-electric federal fleet. The question is: How will he achieve it? (January 28, 2021). That’s 645,000 vehicles in the federal fleet. 4.5 billion miles annually. Using almost 400 million gallons of gas annually.
Biden Wants the Government to Run on EVs. It Won’t Be Easy (February 1, 2021)
Biden’s Charging Plan Could Sell 25 Million EVs (December 2, 2020)
Auto Makers Abandon Challenge to California on Emissions Rules (February 2, 2021)
Even The World’s Oil Giants Are Getting Ahead Of The Electric Vehicle Curve (December 9, 2020). “In the most extreme case, BP says that global oil demand will decline by 80% by 2050. In its “business-as-usual” case, it falls by 10% during this time. Otherwise, expect a 50% drop.”
Tesla Semi Truck Ready for Production (Electrek, Jan 28, 2021)
Amazon’s Electric Rivian Vans Will Start Making Deliveries in 15 Cities This year (February 3, 2021)
Estimates for future EV sales vary, but one credible source says “By 2025, EVs hit 10% of global passenger vehicle sales, rising to 28% in 2030 and 58% in 2040.” That’s global vehicle sales, and may ramp up even faster in the US. This amount may not fully account for the interrelated factors that are coming together in the 2020s. We are past the cutting edge and early adopter phase; EVs are about to reach the masses, and an awful lot can happen in 20 years.
A few notes on things I plan to cover in the future.
EVs are an obvious good.
They will use local energy grids: Local energy grids are concurrently undergoing a transformation toward inexpensive renewable energy.
They will use rechargeable batteries and fuel cells: Batteries are concurrently undergoing a transformation toward inexpensive production.
They will use powerful computing technology: Chipmakers have already doubled the power of computing every 1-2 years for decades.
Beyond the carbon emissions benefits, EVs will be cheaper to buy, cheaper to fuel, and cheaper to maintain. Both consumers and corporations are not going to continue purchasing more expensive and less reliable ICE vehicles for long.
EVs aren’t perfectly (steel, aluminum, plastic, rubber, copper, and glass), but they will soon easily surpass ICE vehicles for sustainability.
This means that America’s largest source of annual carbon emissions has hit its peak, will soon plummet, and will gradually taper off as late adopters or combustion engine stalwarts lag the rest of the world.